12/9/13

In the “I told you so” column…

Back in early 2012, I wrote a blog. In it, I said that: “Prediction two is an interesting version of how events will transpire and given all the chatter and the media interest, I am surprised that no one has mentioned this possibility. I have NO inside information whatsoever. I have less information than any of the media people and so called “experts” or pundits. I am just using logic and 2+2 makes 4.”

This was the second of two predictions that I committed, in that blog, to not put in writing. People close to me know what I was referring to here.

However, now that Professor Walter Russell Mead caught on to the logic of my prediction nearly two years later, and published it in the WSJ in an article called “A Riyadh-Jerusalem Entente” (12/6/2013), I suppose I can come out with it too.

Yes, two years ago, I understood that it is very logical to assume that Israel and Saudi will cooperate in the Iran attack. I welcome the esteemed (really) professor and the WSJ readers to the same understanding, albeit two years later.

Mead suggests that it has been accepted for some time now that Israel could use Saudi air space on its way to attack Iran. He then suggests that this is not enough and that the Israeli air force will use Saudi bases to take off on its way to bomb Iran.

I think he is wrong.

Unless my geography is very wrong, the most direct and shortest route between Israel and Iran is through Jordan and Iraq. None possess the air force or anti-air defense systems to prevent Israel from using their air space at will. I believe that the Israeli air force is capable of flying undetected from Israel to Iran and carrying out a serious bombing attack on Iran. The problem for Israel is that its planes will probably not have the ability to come back due to lacking enough fuel. This could be much worse than the Doolittle Raid of WWII. Israeli planes could fall from the sky on the way back. Israel does have some air refueling capability but I suspect not large enough to refuel enough planes to allow a serious bombing attack on Iran. Therefore, the secret for success here is for the Israeli planes to be able to land ON THE WAY BACK and refuel. That is where I think Saudi will be complicit and still able to deny it.

Furthermore, the fact that the planes are on their way BACK AFTER the attack will make it easier for them to justify it. This is total speculation as I said in my blog two years ago. I believe that airing this in public is harmful but given that the WSJ has just a few more readers than my blog, I felt it is OK for me to come out with it too.

In the same blog, I made another prediction. I wrote that: “Prediction one horrifies me and causes me to lose sleep at night.”

This will remain so. Like prediction two above, people close to me know what I am referring to and I just hope to G-d that I am wrong.