5/8/15

President Obama said about two weeks ago (I believe it was in an NPR interview) that we live in a period of much more stability and less war than “say 30 or 40 years ago.”

I am slowly getting the feeling that the President really believes his own bullshit.

How can he say that and believe it?

It is possible that 40 years ago more American soldiers were dying every day in the Vietnam War. However, it was already winding down in 1975 and, indeed, in the last few days we hit the 40th anniversary of the shameful evacuation of Saigon which marks the end of that sorry episode.

But even during that conflict when the US suffered thousands of casualties every month, the world was actually a more stable place than it is now. As I wrote before, during the Cold War the two super powers fought many wars directly or via proxies but they always kept these numerous conflicts to the periphery.

As a result the world felt pretty stable. People in Europe, Asia, the USA, etc. did not fret about these wars (with the terrible exception of the actual countries at war and, in the case of the US, those that were directly affected by casualties etc.).

Take a look at the world now (this will be brief as I’ve already written multiple times on these matters):

  • East Asia: China is getting stronger quickly and more brazen. It is openly pursuing its contested territorial claims in the South and East China Sea (important for oil drilling and other minerals) while smaller countries like Vietnam and The Philippines are watching helplessly as China creates facts on the ground (actually in the sea by building artificial islands, military bases and airfields, etc.). And the US? Nothing. Non-existent.
  • Middle Asia: The Pakistan situation is simmering and sooner or later is likely to explode in either a war against India or, more likely, a total collapse into chaos in this extremist Muslim state equipped with nuclear weapons.
  • Middle East: Do I even need to discuss this? This entire region of the world is in unprecedented turmoil with Iran, ISIS, and a few others creating havoc. Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Sinai, Lebanon, Jordan, and on and on.
  • Africa: The prevalence of problems in Africa is astounding. Libya, Mali (sorted out for now by the French, of all people), Egypt, Somalia, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, CAR, Congo, Sudan, Darfur, and South Sudan . . . the atrocities here are numerous and are bound to continue.
  • Europe: Russia’s aggression is continuing and has a clear goal of reclaiming dominance in the continent and deeply weaning, possibly dismantling, NATO.
  • USA: The threat of terror is getting larger by the day.

The President either does not care or does not understand the real situation in the world. Mostly, as I said before, he is trying to do just enough so that nothing bad will erupt on his watch and he cannot be criticized at home for doing nothing. He can always sit back later and do what he is best at — criticizing his predecessor and, in this case, his successor.

But foreign affairs have a nasty habit of not conforming to a US president’s plans.

I predict that BEFORE his term is over one or more of the following will occur:

  • China will become even more belligerent and will either confront Japan head on regarding their territorial conflicts, escalating it into a major conflict or, alternatively, will act likewise in regard to Taiwan.
  • Russia will take over more territory in Europe—testing the resilience of NATO—and will win that test. Much more territory.
  • A major war will occur in the Middle East.
  • A serious terror event will occur in the USA, either one large one or a coordinated series of smaller events.

All these evil-doers KNOW that their clock is running out. They need to get as much advantage and achievements while the US is run by a commander-in-chief who will NEVER act in response; no matter what the atrocity is.

The world should be worried, very worried.